How is the price of plastic determined?

The price of plastic packaging, such as film made from polyethylene, is determined by a combination of raw material prices, energy, international trade flows and geopolitical developments. For flexible packaging producers such as KIVO, which produces film based on LDPE and HDPE, the price development of polyethylene (PE) in particular plays a central role.

Although plastics are often seen as a single product, in reality the pricing of polymers is the result of a complex chain starting with energy and petrochemical feedstocks.

From oil and gas to polyethylene

Polyethylene is produced from ethylene, a basic raw material derived from petroleum or natural gas. In Europe, ethylene is mainly produced in so-called naphtha crackers, in which naphtha is converted into various petrochemical building blocks. In other regions, such as the United States and the Middle East, ethylene is more often produced from ethane, a component of natural gas.

Since oil and gas prices directly affect the cost of these processes, changes in energy prices ultimately affect the price of polymers such as LDPE and HDPE.

In addition, an important reference in Europe is the monthly European ethylene contract price, also known as the Ethylene Contract Price (CP). This price is negotiated monthly between petrochemical producers and customers and often forms the basis for polyethylene price adjustments. When the ethylene price rises or falls, PE prices typically move in the same direction, supplemented by producer margins that depend on market conditions.

Market references such as ICIS and S&P Global Platts

Within the plastics industry, independent market analysis and price references are widely used to track polymer price trends. Two major sources are ICIS and S&P Global Platts.

These organisations gather global market information, analyse transactions, and regularly publish price indications for polymers such as LDPE, HDPE and LLDPE. The published prices are not fixed selling prices, but act as market indicators under normal market conditions. In situations of scarcity or disruption, the physical market price may deviate from these.

In practice, contract prices for polyethylene in Europe are often adjusted monthly based on this market information, combined with ethylene contract price developments and the general market situation.

When market prices decouple from indices

Although market analyses from organisations such as ICIS and S&P Global Platts normally provide a good indication of price developments, there are situations where practice deviates from these benchmarks.

In exceptional market conditions, an imbalance can arise between published index prices and the actual prices at which commodities are physically available. This particularly happens when availability is under pressure.

Suppliers can in such situations:

• limit volumes (allocation),
• to apply additional delivery terms,
• or only supply at higher, non-indexed prices.

The consequence is that actual purchasing prices are rising faster than suggested by the movement of, for example, the ICIS index. The index then lags behind the physical market.

For purchasers of plastic packaging, this means that price mechanisms that normally function well may temporarily be less representative of actual cost developments.

Production capacity and availability of raw materials

Besides commodity prices, operational conditions within the petrochemical industry also play an important role. Cracker outages, scheduled maintenance or unexpected technical problems can temporarily limit the supply of ethylene and polymers.

When production capacity is under pressure, material availability can change faster than actual market demand. In such situations, the price of polymers may rise even when demand for packaging materials remains relatively stable.

International trade flows and arbitration

The polyethylene market has a strong international orientation. Large volumes of polymers are traded globally and transported between different regions.

Europe, for example, regularly imports polyethylene from the United States and the Middle East. When price differences between regions become large enough, so-called arbitrage occurs: traders move material to markets where the price is higher. As a result, price developments in other parts of the world also influence the price level in Europe.

Logistical factors also play a role here. Transport costs, availability of shipping space, port congestion and international trade routes can all affect the availability of polymers in the European market.

Geopolitical developments and the Strait of Hormuz

The plastics market is closely linked to the global energy and petrochemical chain. Developments in geopolitically sensitive regions can therefore quickly affect raw material prices and availability.

A key hub in this is the Strait of Hormuz in the Middle East. This strategic sea route connects the Persian Gulf with the global market and is used for a significant part of the global transport of oil, gas and petrochemical products. Much of the polyethylene production from countries such as Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates is also exported via this route.

When tensions in this region increase or trade routes come under pressure, this can lead to uncertainty in energy and commodity markets. This often translates into increased price volatility within the petrochemical sector, including polymers such as polyethylene.

A market that is constantly moving

Thus, the price of plastic packaging is not a static value. It is determined by an interplay of factors: energy prices, petrochemical raw materials, market information from organisations such as ICIS and S&P Global Platts, international trade flows and geopolitical developments.

For flexible packaging manufacturers, it is therefore essential to continuously monitor these developments. This is the only way to respond to changes in the market in time and ensure continuity of production and delivery.

At KIVO, we monitor developments in the raw materials and polymers markets on a daily basis. Based on these insights, we advise our customers on the impact on packaging materials and help them stay prepared for changes in the market.

Want to know more about developments in the polyethylene market or the impact on your packaging solutions? Feel free to contact the team at KIVO. We are happy to think along with you.